The rise and fall of sexual recidivism rates: Evidence from an international meta-study

Dr. Lussier will discuss his findings from his study on sexual recidivism.

In 2019, our research team implemented a SSHRC funded research project aiming to document the evolution of sexual recidivism rates, internationally. While crime rates are routinely compiled and presented each year, there is no equivalent procedure for recidivism rates. As a result, researchers have been working under the assumption that sexual recidivism rates have been relatively stable ever since they were first documented during the 1940-1960. Since, the policy landscape has drastically changed with respect to sexual offending, but also in terms of the prevention of sexual recidivism. Our project involved developing a methodology allowing us to examine the evolution of sexual recidivism rates ever since they were first documented. This involved implementing a meta-study, rarely used in criminology, which will be presented. Our strategy involved a meta-analysis which started with an analysis of 24,000 documents.

Our findings contradicted several key assumptions about risk and sexual recidivism rates. For example, we were able to document a 70% drop in sexual recidivism in Canada, a drop that started during the early 1970s. Our findings also stressed the specificity of risk with respect to minors having been adjudicated for a sexual offense. Since 2023, our project has led to 11 publications cited over 130 times. The findings call for a significant shift in risk management to prevent sexual recidivism while highlighting a series of theoretical, methodological, empirical, and practical issues.   

Bio:

Patrick Lussier, PhD in criminology (University of Montreal), is a professor at the University of Laval, Quebec, Canada. He is the editor of Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice.