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Does Myanmar’s Potemkin poll change anything?

The third and final phase of Myanmar’s tightly controlled election concluded in late January, confirming the unsurprising dominance of the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) in a poll without credible political challengers. Held in parallel with escalating regime offensives in resistance-controlled areas, the vote took place against a backdrop of ongoing repression, including the wielding of a harsh new electoral law that outlawed criticism. Voting was not possible in dozens of townships across the country that are held by groups opposed to Myanmar’s military, and key members of the country’s most popular political party, ousted in the 2021 coup, remain detained – along with thousands of others. What does the conduct and outcome of this election foretell for Myanmar’s near-term political future, including ongoing conflict? What may be the practical effects of this rebranding of dictatorship, however unconvincing? And how might relationships between the USDP and the military take shape in the coming months as key figures jostle for positions of power in Naypyidaw?

Joining us to discuss these issues as part of a panel are Su Mon Thant, Senior Analyst for the international organisation Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), Tharindu Damith Abeyrathna, Senior Program Officer at the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL), Min Khin Maung Yin, a freelance researcher with over three decades’ experience in political and social development, and Morten Pedersen, Senior Lecturer in International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales (Canberra), who will chair the session. Each panellist will give opening remarks, up to 10 minutes each, followed by questions from the audience for the remainder of the hour.

Speakers

Su Mon Thant is an expert in conflict dynamics and democracy in Asia. She is an Asia-Pacific Senior Analyst in the international organization Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED). She holds an MA in Politics and International Relations from Keele University (UK) and is a 2025 Research Fellow for the Myanmar-Australia Visiting Fellowship Program at the University of Melbourne, and The Australian National University. She has researched Myanmar’s politics and society for over a decade, including as an accredited observer of the 2015 and 2020 Myanmar elections.

Tharindu Damith Abeyrathna holds the position of Senior Program Officer for Campaign and Advocacy at the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL). With a substantial background as an election expert, Tharindu has actively participated in electoral processes across several Asian countries, including Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, the Philippines, and Timor Leste. Tharindu's contributions extend to various publications on pertinent topics, encompassing international and domestic election observation, the pivotal role of media in elections, and the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic on electoral processes.

Moreover, Tharindu served as the resident officer in Myanmar on behalf of the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL). In this capacity, he played a significant role in advancing the cause of free and fair elections, while also enhancing the capacity of civil society, media, and election management bodies in the country. Tharindu holds a bachelor's degree in International Relations from the University of Colombo and is pursuing a Master's Degree in Human Rights and Democratization, underscoring a commitment to advancing democratic values and electoral integrity in the Asian region.

Dr Min Khin Maung Yin is a freelance researcher, senior adviser, and course convenor working with several organisations. He has over 30 years of experience in political and social development, with a particular focus on conflict analysis and peacebuilding. He holds a PhD in International and Political Studies from the University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra. He also earned a Master of Diplomacy and a Master of Public Policy from The Australian National University.

Chair

Dr Morten Pedersen is Senior Lecturer in International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales Canberra (Australian Defence Force Academy) and a former senior analyst for the International Crisis Group in Myanmar. In addition to teaching and research, he has worked as a policy advisor on Myanmar politics and development affairs for the United Nations, the World Bank, the European Commission, the Australian government, and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Martti Ahtisaari, among others.

His major publications include Promoting Human Rights in Burma: A Critique of Western Sanctions Policies (Rowman & Littlefield, 2008); with Anna Magnusson, A Good Office: Twenty Years of UN Mediation in Myanmar (International Peace Institute, 2012); and with David Kinley, Principled Engagement: Negotiating Human Rights in Pariah States (Ashgate, 2013). He was the 2013 winner of the Boyer Prize for the best original article in the Australian Journal of International Affairs - 'How to promote human rights in the world's most repressive states: Lessons from Myanmar', Vol. 67, No. 2, 2013.

For more information of this series, please contact Zaw Yadanar Hein, zaw.hein@anu.edu.au

The ANU Myanmar Research Centre Dialogue Series is a conversation concerning current research on Myanmar aimed at providing scholars with an opportunity to present their work, try out an idea, advance an argument and critically engage with other researchers. International and Myanmar researchers from any discipline are invited to contribute. The Dialogue Series is particularly seeking to provide a space for early career researchers wishing to receive constructive feedback. Each dialogue is one hour long, including a 30-minute presentation followed by a 30-minute Q&A. As a hybrid series, the Dialogues are presented in both virtual and in-person format, hosted by the ANU Myanmar Research Centre.

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