The Probability of Failure in Geotechnical Analysis

DV Griffiths

Colorado School of Mines

Fulbright Distinguished Chair, University of Newcastle, NSW

Abstract

Geotechnical engineers have a toolbox of methods that can be used to make probabilistic geotechnical predictions. These include Event Trees, First Order Methods and Monte-Carlo Methods such as the Random Finite Element Method (RFEM). The lecture will review some of these techniques and discuss some of their benefits and shortcomings. Since RFEM is the only method able to explicitly account for spatial variability, the lecture will focus on cases where it can have a significant influence on outcomes. In particular, examples will be given of geotechnical applications that indicate a “worst case” spatial correlation length.

Biography

D. Vaughan Griffiths PhD, DSc, PE, D.GE, C.Eng, FICE, Dist.M.ASCE is a Professor of Civil Engineering at the Colorado School of Mines, USA, and a Fulbright Distinguished Chair at the University of Newcastle, NSW. His research interests lie in application of finite element and risk assessment methodologies in geotechnical engineering, and his papers on slope stability analysis are among the most highly cited in the geotechnical engineering literature. He is the co-author of three textbooks that have gone into multiple and foreign language editions on “Programming the Finite Element Method”, “Risk Assessment in Geotechnical Engineering” and “Numerical Methods for Engineers”. He gives regular short-courses on Risk Assessment for practitioners, with recent offerings in Australia, Canada, China, Colombia, New Zealand, Norway, Taiwan and the USA. Professor Griffiths is a past-editor of the journals Computers and Geotechnics, Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering and Géotechnique. In 2017, he was named the Cross-Canada Lecturer by the Canadian Geotechnical Society, and the same year received the H. Bolton Seed Medal from the ASCE/Geo-Institute. He served on the Board of Direction of ASCE from 2010-2013 as the Region 7 Director, and was inducted as a Distinguished Member of the ASCE in 2020. He gave the TH Wu Distinguished Lecture in 2021 and the Wilson Tang lecture in 2022.