This study examines the impact of China’s Rural Nutrition Improvement Program (CRNIP), which provides free lunch meals to students during their compulsory education, on second-child fertility rates in China’s poorest counties. Using cohort Difference-in-Differences estimations with China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) survey data, the results show the program significantly reduces the likelihood of mothers having a second child by 9.24 percentage points. We explore two channels through which this impact operates. First, interpreting the CRNIP as a government investment in child ‘quality’, we provide evidence of a quantity-quality tradeoff: with participating households substituting towards quality. Second, we find evidence of a fertility-employment tradeoff, with the program increasing the labour force participation rates of (some) mothers. Heterogeneity analysis reveals the largest fertility reductions for mothers in the poorest households, followed by middle-income households, with no impact for the richest ones. The labor force participation channel only pertains to mothers in middle-income households. These findings highlight an important unintended consequence for Chinese policymakers given that the program reduces fertility rates while other policies are actively seeking to increase them.

Speaker biography:

Professor Jane Golley is Head of the Arndt-Corden Department of Economics at the Crawford School of Public Policy. Jane’s research has covered a wide range of topics centred around the Chinese economy, often intersecting with other disciplines, including geography, demographic change, and political relations. Jane teaches Master-level courses on the Chinese and Asian economies. She has served as the President of the Chinese Economic Society of Australia (2010-2012) and the Chinese Studies Association of Australia (2020-2021) and is an Executive Member of the Australia-China Business Council (ACT).

Online details will be included in your email confirmation once you register.

Contact the host of Free Lunches and Fertility: Evidence from China’s Rural Nutrition Improvement Program

There were 0 errors found in the information you submitted: