MYANMAR ONE YEAR POST-COUP: Implications & Responses to Myanmar’s Political and Humanitarian Crises

ROUNTABLE SYMPOSIUM - 1-2 February 2022 
in-person @Deakin University, Melbourne Australia, and via Zoom 
2-day event, extensive line-up, in-depth discussions - Register NOW for either or both days (free)

Presented by Deakin University's Development-Humanitarian Research Group and Alfred Deakin Institute, in conjunction with the Australia Myanmar Institute and the Centre for Humanitarian Leadership.

The 1 February 2020 Myanmar coup rapidly reversed what seemed to be tentative political-economic transitions over the past decade. The country is now characterised by state fragility and increased in human insecurity. Key dimensions and factors of the inter-related political and humanitarian crisis include:

• violent repression of armed and unarmed civil resistance (including battlefield tactics against civilians)
• renewed warfare between the military and ethnic minority armies (and the use of aerial bombardment for the first time in two decades)
• new, younger politicians / parties proposing policies at odds with those of the National League for Democracy (NLD), and who are communicating and organising via non-traditional technologies—and the consequent ferocious repression of these groups and technologies
• decline, outlawing or suborning of the institutions that previously supported civil society and democratisation, specifically the Buddhist monkhood (Sangha), the NLD, and the media
• rapid increase in state fragility involving the breakdown of institutional capacity and a renewed willingness to challenge global norms and established humanitarian engagement principles and practices
• rapid rise of poverty, urgent public health emergency, crisis in education
• increasing strategic engagement of Russia (including arms sales); forceful strategic engagement of China, and a resurfacing in Myanmar of anti-Chinese sentiment by some opposition that has seen the destruction of Chinese assets, workers’ strikes, and consumer boycotts)

These complex, inter-related and evolving factors have been evident for months. The new situation demands different responses and engagement by international actors. The previous period was one of increasing diplomatic bilateralism and statebuilding engagement with state institutions. There is now an urgent need for new policy settings, and for practical engagement based on new goals, modes and local partners and/or recipient groups.

This roundtable seeks to explore these issues in detail, particularly their implications and appropriate responses by domestic and international actors.

REVISED PROGRAMME (Melbourne, Australia time zone)

Day 1: 1 February 2022 – Myanmar’s Political Crisis

(all presentations strictly 15 minute maximum, with discussion at the end of each panel)

9:00 – 9:15 Introduction

Welcome - One year on: The political and humanitarian crises - AProf Anthony Ware & Prof Monique Skidmore, Alfred Deakin Institute, Deakin University

9:15 – 10:45 Panel 1 – National

Four scenarios for understanding Myanmar’s political & humanitarian crises - Prof Nicholas Farrelly, School of Social Sciences, University of Tasmania

Responding to the 2021 coup:  A critique of the solidarity approach - Dr Morten Pedersen, University of New South Wales, at the Australian Defence Force Academy

Activism from exile - Prof Judith Beyer, Samia Akhter-Khan, Nickey Diamond, X (Pseudonym), University of Konstanz

Self-determination in post-coup Myanmar: Power sharing elements in the NUG constitution - AProf Costas Laoutides, Alfred Deakin Institute, Deakin University

10:45 – 11:15 Morning Tea Break

11:15– 12:30 Panel 2 – International Actors / Responses

China-Myanmar relations after the coup: From cautious foes to nervous friends - Dr Kristina Kironska, Palacky University Olomouc, Czechia

Myanmar in ASEAN: Dilemmas, determinants and capacity - Dr Moe Thuzar, Institute of South East Asia Studies (ISEAS), Singapore

Multinational enterprise behaviours in post-coup Myanmar - Adjunct AProf Nicholas Coppel, Monash University, former ambassador to Myanmar

12:30 – 1:30 LUNCH BREAK

1:30 – 3:00 Panel 3 – Law, Education, Health, Social Media

Politics, justice & accountability: Myanmar and international courts - Dr Adam Simpson & Juliette McIntyre, University of South Australia

Pandemic weaponisation and non-state welfare post-coup - Dr Gerard McCarthy & Burmese co-author, National University of Singapore

Myanmar’s Higher Education Sector Post-Coup: fracturing a fragile system - Dr Charlotte Galloway, Australian National University

The role of disruptive technologies in democracy activism after the coup - Jaydn & Prof Monique Skidmore, Alfred Deakin Institute, Deakin University

3:00 – 3:15 Afternoon Tea Break

3:15 – 4:00 Panel 4 – Impact on Minorities --> Rakhine State

Impact of political crisis after the coup on communal tension in Rakhine State - Tay Zar Myo Win & Dr Ye Min Zaw, Chulalongkorn University

Rakhine State dynamics post-coup:  Implications of increasing non-state parallel governance for the Rohingya and aid/peacebuidling - AProf Costas Laoutides & AProf Anthony Ware, Alfred Deakin Institute, Deakin University

Day 2: 2 February 2022 – Myanmar’s Humanitarian Crisis

9:00 – 9:15 Welcome

Recap Day 1 / The humanitarian crisis - AProf Anthony Ware & Prof Monique Skidmore, Alfred Deakin Institute, Deakin University

9:15 – 10:30 Panel 5 – Humanitarian Response

(all presentations strictly 15 minute maximum, with discussion at the end of each panel)

As local as possible, as international as necessary’? Opportunities and challenges for localisation and decolonisation of aid post-coup - Dr Anne Décobert, The University of Melbourne 

Myanmar’s Humanitarian Crisis and the Role of Civil Society - Cho Myint Naing, San Wai, Naw Khu Doh, Wutyi Soe, Lahpai Htu Raw, Awn Ra, Metta Development

Relief as resistance: (re)emergent humanitarianism in post-coup Myanmar - Dr Mike Griffiths, Social Policy & Poverty Research Group, Yangon

10:30 – 10:00 Morning Tea Break

11:00 – 12:00 Roundtable Discussion 1 

GROUP 1 – SCENARIOS

What scenarios are agencies basing program planning upon? Why do they believe this is most likely? What operating models should INGOs adopt as they return to programming?

GROUP 2 – 
HUMAN SECURITY CHALLENGES AND RISKS

What are the human security challenges and risks within the country? What threats do the breakdown of state institutions and increased state fragility hold, especially for ethnic minorities, Myanmar’s neighbours and the region?

12:00 – 1:00 Roundtable Discussion 2

GROUP 1 – INTERNATIONAL NGO ROLE(S)

What role can/should INGOs best play, and how can/should international agencies support local responses? Public voice? Advocacy? Solidarity? Coordination with NUG? And how can they do so in ways that redistribute risk away from Myanmar actors / minimise the risk local actors face? What creative and conflict-sensitive options are available? Does this relate to localisation of aid / decolonisation?

GROUP 2 – ASEAN CHINA-RUSSIA

What does the involvement of ASEAN, China and Japan contribute / mean? How much, and what attention, should be given to geostrategic concerns about China and Russia’s role in Myanmar, in thinking about Humanitarian responses? e.g. role of China and Chinese projects, Russian arms sales and military cooperation. What about cooperation with ASEAN?

1:00 – 2:00 LUNCH BREAK

2:00 – 3:00 Roundtable Discussion 3

GROUP 1 – AID CONTRADICTIONS, ETHICS AND PRINCIPLES

How do/could INGOs handle the contradictions in sanctions. Is there any chance of defining a coherent set of ethics/principles that INGOs / agencies working in Myanmar might adopt, to navigate what is a fraught grey legal / moral space? In particular,

• ○ What principles should guide in decision-making? Are the humanitarian principles or ‘regular’ development principles relevant? What combination, or alternatives?
• ○ How can they balance desire to meet human need and gain humanitarian access with risk of legitimising the regime?
• ○ How can they meet (DFAT/donor) due diligence, partnerships & MOUs, and financial auditing?
• ○ Is it possible to find creative means to gain access, partner, transfer funds, etc, without breaching new international laws and requirements (e.g. sanctions, counter-terrorism / money laundering laws)? What new principles / policies are needed?

GROUP 2 – NUG

To what extent – and how – might humanitarian response collaborate with the NUG? Does the NUG’s calls for armed resistance make this more difficult? How does, or could, aid engage with NUG policy and policy making?

3:00 – 3:15 Afternoon Tea Break

3:15 – 4:15 Roundtable Discussion 4

GROUP 1 – ROHINGYA

What are the implications of all this for the Rohingya, both inside Myanmar and in camps in Bangladesh? Is there any opportunity for peacebuilding? Inter/intra-faith dialogue? Return?

GROUP 2 – CROSS-BORDER

What can/might be done to assist with those fleeing as IDPs and refugees, to safer areas across the country, into the borderlands, or across the borders into Thailand, China and elsewhere?

4:15 – 4:30 Closing Session