As the US-China Great Power Competition intensifies, New Zealand has shifted its view over time of Beijing from a potential security partner to an actor challenging the regional status quo and aspects of the international rules-based order that Wellington asserts is critical to its long-term security. A sea-change in New Zealand’s view has occurred, with China’s rapid military expansion and assertive behaviour placing pressure on New Zealand to balance in the security arena. This presentation will detail this largely overlooked story by outlining Wellington’s balancing strategy vis-a-vis China from 2010 to 2023. This includes a first phase of pre-balancing through deepened ties with Washington, then transition to active balancing via acquisition of advanced aircraft, space co-operation, joint naval manoeuvres, and soft balancing in the Pacific.

A suite of new strategic documents released in August 2023 signals a second phase of pre-balancing, portending rejuvenation of the NZ Defence Force and potentially more active balancing efforts, especially in the South Pacific. The rationale for Wellington’s potential membership of AUKUS Pillar II is also considered. Ultimately, Dr. Steff will make the case that New Zealand can no longer retreat to the psychologically comfortable but outdated shibboleths of the past.

Bio: Dr Reuben Stef

Dr Reuben Steff is Senior Lecturer of Geopolitics and International Relations at the University of Waikato, and is a member of Te Puna Haumaru New Zealand Institute for Security and Crime Science. Prior to Waikato, he spent 2.5 years at the NZ Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. His research includes Great Power Competition, emerging technologies, nuclear deterrence theory, and NZ geopolitics. He has publications on these topics in multiple journals and has authored four books, including Emerging Technologies and International Security: Machines, the State and War (Routledge, 2020). His forthcoming book is Indo-Pacific Geopolitics in an era of Intensifying Great Power Competition: A New Zealand Security Strategy Perspective (Palgrave-Macmillan, 2024).

He regularly participates in policy development processes, attends Academic-Government Roundtables on national security issues, and participates in track 1.5 and track 2 dialogues.

He welcomes conversations, provocations, and good faith debate at rsteff@waikato.ac.nz, tweets @ReubenSteff and is happy to connect via LinkedIn.