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An examination of the explanations for the fall in crime in Australia between 2001 and 2019

Between 1975 and 2000 in Australia, the motor vehicle theft rate doubled, the break and enter rate doubled, the general theft rate more than doubled, the robbery rate rose by more than 500% and the assault rate increased by a factor of 10. From 2001 onwards, rates of these same offences declined by between 40 and 70 percent. At least 14 different theories have been put forward to explain the fall, including the removal of lead from petrol, abortion law reform, the aging population, reduced illegal drug use and increased imprisonment rates, to name a few.

In this seminar we examine the empirical evidence for and against some of these theories. We conclude that the fall in crime was likely caused by several interacting factors, including the Australian heroin shortage, an aging population, an increase in the risk of apprehension and the collapse of the stolen goods market.

Speaker Bio:

Dr Don Weatherburn PSM, FASSA.

Don Weatherburn is a Professor at the National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre and was for 31 years before that Executive Director of the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research 1988. He was awarded a Public Service Medal in January 1998, an Alumni Award for Community Service by the University of Sydney in 2000 and made a fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia in 2006. He has published three books and more than 200 peer-reviewed articles, reports, and book chapters on crime and criminal justice. His most recent book, “The Case of the Vanishing Criminal”, is being published by Melbourne University Press.

Contact the host of The Case of the Vanishing Criminal