The Delusion of Peak China: Some Thoughts on the Future of China and U.S.-China Relations

China’s future is as uncertain as it is consequential. A China that keeps growing and reshapes international order is as probable one whose trajectory fades as Beijing struggles with both domestic and external challenges. A recent U.S. debate asserts Chinese power has peaked and, as its capabilities decline, Xi will become more aggressive to lock in its gains as its power fades.

Dr. Medeiros argues that this theory is both inaccurate and dangerous. In discussing China’s future, his talk will explore China’s current political and economic trajectory under Xi Jinping. He argues that the leadership does not believes China is declining, but they are nonetheless making risky bets about their future. Most importantly, even a China that experiences a growth plateau still represents a formidable strategic challenge to the United States, Australia, and the world for the next decade and beyond.  

Evan S. Medeiros is a professor and Penner family chair in Asia studies in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. He has published several books and articles on East Asian security affairs, U.S.-China relations, and China’s foreign and national security policies. He regularly provides advice to global corporations and commentary to the international media.