The Unintended Consequences of Measure ULA

The Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies is hosting a research talk by Professor Michael Manville of the UCLA Urban Planning Department on his research on The Unintended Consequences of Measure ULA.

About the Research:

We present evidence suggesting that Measure ULA has reduced higher-end real estate transactions in Los Angeles. Since Measure ULA was enacted, the odds of a Los Angeles property selling at a price above its tax threshold have fallen by as much as 50 percent. In raw terms, this sharp decline occurred across all types of properties, but our strongest evidence suggests it was particularly pronounced for commercial, industrial and multifamily residential transactions. Together the evidence suggests that Measure ULA is neither a “Mansion Tax,” nor a tax that falls solely on unearned property wealth. The tax does fall on mansions, but it also impedes the trade in commercial, industrial and multifamily property. In doing so it jeopardizes LA’s ability to build new housing, revitalize struggling commercial and industrial properties, and raise property tax revenue. All these processes rely on property turnover, and in particular the turnover of higher-priced, non-single family parcels. A tax that reduces this turnover will undermine property tax revenues inside and outside LA, obstruct local and regional housing production, and slow local revitalization efforts. Thus while Measure ULA has generated visible, substantial and much-needed revenues for affordable housing in Los Angeles, it has also, less visibly, had consequences that reduce both housing affordability and fiscal health. These consequences, fortunately, do not need to be part of the Measure. We propose some simple amendments that could make Measure ULA fairer, more efficient, and more in line with the spirit in which it was advertised.

About the Speaker: 

Michael Manville is Professor of Urban Planning at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs. His research areas are transportation, land use, and housing, and the interrelationships between those. He has particular interests in road and parking pricing; the determinants of driving and transit use; and the influence of land use regulations on the supply and price of housing.

Dr. Manville’s research has been published in journals of planning, economics, urban studies, and sociology. He has received research funding from University Transportation Centers, from the John Randolph Haynes Foundation, and the TransitCenter, among others. He has consulted for developers, environmental groups, local governments, and the United Nations.

Dr. Manville has an MA and PhD in Urban Planning, both from UCLA Luskin. Prior to joining Luskin as a faculty member, he was Assistant Professor of City and Regional Planning at Cornell University.

Lunch will be proviced for those who RSVP.